Malaysia’s political situation is changing as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim loses ground to his former ally, Barisan Nasional, ahead of the next national elections.
State election losses weaken Anwar’s coalition
Pakatan Harapan, Anwar’s multiracial coalition, lost control of Negeri Sembilan after eight years in power during weekend elections. It secured only 11 of the 36 seats it contested, allowing Barisan Nasional and the opposition Perikatan Nasional to form a supermajority.
The defeat follows similar results in Johor last month, where the coalition won just eight of 56 seats, and in Sabah last year, where it managed only one. In both Johor and Negeri Sembilan, Barisan and Perikatan loosely coordinated campaigns, focusing on Malaysia’s Malay Muslim majority, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the population.
Asrul Sani, an associate vice-president at The Asia Group, said Anwar is no longer driving the political agenda. Instead, dissatisfaction with the government is increasingly visible in election outcomes.
Economic discontent fuels opposition momentum
Criticism of Anwar’s government has grown over its slow reforms and failure to spread the benefits of Malaysia’s economic growth. Rising living costs have stood out against the country’s AI-driven expansion, especially after fuel subsidies were cut amid higher energy prices tied to the war in Iran.
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Bridget Welsh, a researcher at the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, said Anwar faces a trust deficit among many citizens. Foreign investment has not translated into better conditions for most people.
This frustration has allowed opponents to focus on identity politics. Barisan and Perikatan have pushed for Malay political unity, playing on ethnic concerns. The Democratic Action Party (DAP), the largest party in Anwar’s coalition and mainly ethnic Chinese, has been a frequent target. Opponents have portrayed DAP’s influence as a threat to Malay political dominance, a message that resonated in recent campaigns.
DAP’s difficulties were clear in the latest state polls, where the party lost several seats it had held. Transport Minister Anthony Loke Siew Fook, also DAP’s secretary-general, lost his state seat in Negeri Sembilan and stepped down as the party’s Negeri Sembilan chief after 22 years.
Anwar still holds a slim parliamentary majority, but more defections might trigger an early election.
The opposition’s rise indicates that Malay unity, rather than multiracial cooperation, may shape the next election. If Barisan and Perikatan keep working together, Pakatan’s path to victory could shrink further, leaving the coalition with limited options to recover.