Sertan Ayçiçek, a veteran with 25 years of experience across international business, diplomacy and strategic investing, addresses the topic with senior-executive gravitas. He currently serves as chairman of Royal Funds and chief executive of IKAR Holdings, positioning his outlook at the crossroads of private capital, geopolitics and enduring value creation. In a recent interview, he outlines why geopolitical shifts are gaining importance for long-term investment choices and describes the way family offices are engaging private markets and extending investment horizons.
Geopolitics as a Factor in Investment Decisions
Private bankers and their clients are now forced to consider forces that do not appear on financial statements until they have already redirected capital. A regulatory decision can alter a company’s competitive position, while energy policy reshapes entire sectors. For private investors, the question is no longer simply whether an asset is attractive today, but which forces could determine its value five or ten years from now.
Fundamental analysis of investments is still key, encompassing factors like cash flows and management quality, but it must now be viewed through a broader lens, considering elements such as data infrastructure and semiconductor supply chains. Investing in artificial intelligence, for instance, demands an understanding of its wider implications, including energy requirements and regulatory frameworks. The adviser’s role is to guide clients in grasping how structural shifts could impact their assets, rather than predicting geopolitical events.
A key advantage of family offices is their ability to adopt a long-term perspective, allowing them to focus on structural transformations rather than short-term market fluctuations. However, this patient approach requires discipline, necessitating an understanding of aspects like governance, capital structure, and geopolitical exposure. It’s essential to distinguish between having patient capital and employing a patient investment process, as these are not interchangeable concepts.
Investors are increasingly asking, ‘What strategic capability can this capital create?’ This notion of ‘strategic capital’ is redefining the framework for evaluating opportunities. There’s a growing focus on areas like artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, and cybersecurity, which can influence economic resilience and strategic capability. For private capital, this means assessing not just an asset’s current value but also its potential long-term impact.
Private markets offer access to businesses undergoing structural transformations, but identifying attractive companies is just the beginning. Investors must look into management, governance, capital structure, and the business environment. For family offices, the key question is whether an investment aligns with their long-term objectives, risk framework, and strategic capabilities, not just its immediate appeal.
Artificial intelligence is transforming both the companies investors consider and the investment decision-making process itself. At the company level, AI enhances productivity and data analysis, while at the investment level, it improves information processing and pattern identification. However, AI does not replace human judgment; instead, it increases the value of discerning which information is truly relevant. Investment decisions still require context, judgment, and an understanding of human factors.
Redesigning supply chains necessitates new infrastructure, and shifts in energy systems create new investment opportunities. When governments prioritize technological sovereignty, capital flows towards new industries and capabilities. This is why sectors like energy, semiconductors, and cybersecurity must be considered as part of broader economic and strategic systems. Opportunities often emerge at the intersection of multiple disciplines.
Governance is fundamental when private capital enters a business, as capital without direction can lead to unchecked growth. The objective should be to create a stronger organization with appropriate decision-making structures, accountability, and a clear long-term strategy. For private investors, governance is increasingly integral to the investment thesis, beyond mere compliance.