Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.74 million barrels per day in June, the highest level in six years. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission released the figures, showing four consecutive months of growth. Improved pipeline security and fewer disruptions in the Niger Delta drove the increase.
The commission linked the rise to stable operations across major producing assets and minimal pipeline outages. Crude oil output reached 1.56 million barrels per day, while condensates contributed another 0.18 million barrels. Total production exceeded Nigeria’s OPEC quota by 4%.
Security overhaul cuts losses
The turnaround reverses a trend from just a few years ago, when theft, vandalism, and illegal refining cost the industry hundreds of thousands of barrels daily. The commission attributed the stability to stronger security measures, particularly those led by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd. The federal government hired the private firm to protect oil infrastructure.
The relative calm in the Delta allowed operators to maintain longer production uptimes and smoother crude evacuations.
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Communities in the region saw fewer disruptions to daily life, though economic benefits remained uneven. Long-standing grievances over oil wealth distribution persisted despite the rising production numbers.
Terminals report mixed performance
Maintenance was completed without major disruptions, a rarity in an industry where unplanned shutdowns once cost billions. The peak daily output in June reached 1.89 million barrels. If current trends continue, the country could soon hit the 2-million-barrel mark.
Higher production aligned with rising oil prices, which briefly exceeded $120 per barrel amid Middle East tensions. Prices later moderated, but Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumes a benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. The government projects gross oil revenue of $17.78 billion between February and May 2026, surpassing estimates by $6.51 billion.
Analysts cautioned that the windfall might not last. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said a drop in global prices would directly reduce Nigeria’s revenue. Aminu Gwadabe, president of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria, argued that increased production would boost foreign exchange inflows and support growth.
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Stakeholders praised Tantita’s role in securing pipelines, though some questioned the long-term sustainability of relying on a single contractor. The firm, led by former militant leader Government Ekpemupolo, works with other security agencies. Its success in reducing theft allowed Nigeria to shift from crisis management to planning, but critics said broader reforms—including community engagement and infrastructure investment—were necessary to prevent setbacks.
The commission noted that the gains were still fragile. While June’s production was the highest since April 2020, the lowest daily output during the month fell to 1.57 million barrels. The agency urged continued vigilance, warning that even brief shutdowns at key assets could erase progress.
The numbers reflect a rare success in Nigeria’s oil sector. Global prices remain volatile, and domestic tensions linger. The challenge will be turning this moment into lasting stability rather than slipping back into cycles of theft and disruption that have long plagued the country’s most valuable resource. The supply risks in Hormuz add another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.